Using U.S. Energy as Leverage || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

The U.S. is threatening to cut LNG exports to Europe as trade negotiation leverage, exploiting Europe's critical post-Ukraine energy vulnerability.

Key Points

• 1.Europe is critically dependent on U.S. LNG after losing two major supply sources. Europe imports nearly 90% of its natural gas; Russian flows stopped due to the Ukraine war, and Qatari LNG (previously the largest supplier) stopped after Iran's conflict closed the Strait of Hormuz, leaving the U.S. as one of the few remaining options.
• 2.U.S. Ambassador to Europe Andrew Puzder threatened to cut LNG exports if trade talks — particularly on auto tariffs — fail. Zeihan calls it a 'total dick move' but acknowledges it could work given Europe's limited alternatives.
• 3.Blocking LNG exports would be legally complicated but not necessarily stopped by this administration. Since U.S. LNG is handled by private companies, not a state entity, government intervention would trigger major lawsuits — yet the Trump administration has shown little concern for legal norms or standard business conditions.