Toronto's $27BN Subway Gamble

TL;DR

Toronto's Ontario Line subway has ballooned from $10.9B to $27B CAD with no firm opening date, raising fears of another transit disaster.

Key Points

• 1.Toronto faces a severe transit crisis driven by explosive population growth. The city is expected to grow from 6 million to 10 million people by 2050, yet local governments receive only 8–10 cents of every tax dollar despite owning 60% of core infrastructure, leaving a national deficit of up to $270 billion.
• 2.The Ontario Line is a 15.6km, 15-station subway through Downtown Toronto. Once complete, it should bring 230,000 people within walking distance of transit, accommodate 400,000 daily boardings, and eliminate 28,000 car trips per day.
• 3.The project replaced a cheaper, shovel-ready plan called the Downtown Relief Line. That earlier route had 8 stations and a projected cost of $6.8–$8.3 billion CAD, with a 2029 opening target, before Premier Doug Ford's government scrapped it in 2019 and handed control to Metrolinx.
• 4.The original $10.9B budget has more than doubled to $27 billion CAD. The 2027 opening target has slipped to the early 2030s for civil infrastructure only, with testing and commissioning pushing the actual launch date even further — and no specific opening date has been announced.
• 5.Metrolinx's credibility is severely damaged by recent failures. The Finch LRT opened late and over budget in 2025, with switches failing on day one — a jogger beat the train by 18 minutes — while the Eglinton Crosstown opened six years late and way over budget, though it has since stabilised.
• 6.Construction uses specialised EPB tunnel boring machines underground and cheaper elevated guideways above ground. The elevated sections save cost by avoiding 70-metre-deep tunnelling required through Don Valley, and six interchange stations will connect the line to GO Transit, subway Lines 1 and 2, and the Eglinton Crosstown LRT.