Impacts on the U.S. Power Grid from the Iran War || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

The U.S. power grid faces minimal direct risk from Iran conflict because America is a net energy exporter, though indirect supply chain disruptions loom by Q4.

Key Points

• 1.The U.S. is insulated from direct Iran-related energy disruptions. America exports every major energy type — natural gas, oil, coal, jet fuel — and is now the world's largest LNG exporter, breaking any direct price link to Strait of Hormuz closures affecting 20% of global LNG.
• 2.Indirect coal price increases could still reach U.S. consumers. If global energy shortages drive up coal prices internationally, U.S. electricity generators using coal would feel cost pressure despite America being a coal exporter.
• 3.The bigger threat is supply chain disruption to grid equipment by Q4. Rolling energy crises in East Asia and Europe will hit manufacturers of aluminum cabling, copper electronics, and transformers — critical grid components the U.S. imports — with transformers alone taking over a year to build.