So You Want to Break Iran... || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Targeting Iran's shadow tanker fleet in the Indian Ocean is the most effective economic lever to force Iran into a serious deal.

Key Points

• 1.Iran exports ~2 million barrels of oil daily via shadow tankers in violation of sanctions. The route runs from Kharg Island through the Strait of Hormuz, around India, through Lombok (not Malacca — too shallow for VLCCs/ULCCs), and up to Northeast Asia, primarily China.
• 2.The blockade has forced Iran to park tankers as floating storage near Kharg Island. The round-trip takes 28–30 days plus ~5 days to unload, meaning the last tankers dispatched before the blockade are returning next week, creating a parking lot of ~30 Iranian government-owned shadow tankers in the Indian Ocean.
• 3.Seizing or destroying the tanker fleet — not Iranian oil infrastructure — is the optimal pressure strategy. Since the tankers are state-owned, removing them would eliminate Iran's export capacity even if sanctions eased, and their Indian Ocean location keeps any action far from Iranian military defenses and population centers.