Iran Diplomacy Has Yet to Begin || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Trump's Iran diplomacy is stalled because he fired career diplomats and insists on being the sole negotiator, creating a single point of failure.

Key Points

• 1.Trump gutted the diplomatic apparatus that makes deals possible. Normal diplomacy relies on State Department, CIA, and NSC staff doing groundwork at multiple levels before a president engages — Trump fired most of them and barred the rest from conducting diplomacy, leaving him as the sole decision-maker.
• 2.Three appointed negotiators have all failed Iran talks. J.D. Vance was removed after one disastrous attempt; Steve Witcoff has returned nothing useful except adversary propaganda; Jared Kushner approaches every negotiation as a real estate transaction — none are suited for Iranian diplomacy.
• 3.Project Freedom collapsed after 2 days and only 2 ships escorted. Trump launched a Navy escort plan for Persian Gulf vessels without consulting allies; Saudi Arabia revoked U.S. air base access within one day, demanding Iran negotiations resume, forcing cancellation of the entire initiative.
• 4.Meaningful Iran diplomacy has not yet begun and the pattern extends globally. After 18 months, the U.S. has no meaningful trade deal with anyone, Iran talks are stalled, and ally relations are at their worst in decades — the same preparation failures will likely doom the upcoming China summit.