Is Now a Good Time for China to Invade Taiwan? || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Despite U.S. military distraction in Iran, China invading Taiwan now would backfire because the U.S. Navy controls China's Persian Gulf oil supply.

Key Points

• 1.The U.S. is militarily weakened but strategically positioned. The Iran war consumed roughly half of America's deployable long-range munitions, taking 5–10 years to restock, and repositioned naval forces away from the Pacific — making a Chinese Taiwan move tactically easier short-term.
• 2.China's energy dependency is the fatal vulnerability. China imports 80% of its crude oil, with 75% of that coming from the Persian Gulf — exactly where the U.S. Navy is now concentrated, giving Washington an immediate chokehold on China's economy.
• 3.A Chinese invasion would trigger catastrophic self-destruction. If China moved on Taiwan and the U.S. cut off Persian Gulf energy flows, Zeihan argues China would collapse into a post-apocalyptic famine killing half its population within a year — making 'now' a terrible time despite surface appearances.