Larry Wilkerson Responds: Is US Checkmated in Iran??

TL;DR

Retired Colonel Larry Wilkerson argues there is a 60/40 chance the US resumes bombing Iran, which would trigger global recession and confirm America's strategic defeat.

Key Points

• 1.Israel secretly operated a military base in Iraq's western desert to support strikes on Iran. Wilkerson says the US, UK, and possibly Jordan had complicity in running the operation, and Haaretz reported the US told Iraqi forces to stay away from the area.
• 2.Wilkerson puts 60/40 odds on the US resuming full-scale bombing of Iran. He alleges Trump is timing strikes around stock market conditions to benefit allies and family, and that the planned campaign would involve B-2s, B-52s, and nearly the entire US Air Force.
• 3.If Iran is bombed again and hits second-tier targets, Wilkerson forecasts a US recession by June and global depression by September–October. He draws a direct parallel to the Great Depression preceding World War II.
• 4.Wilkerson dismisses Mark Levin's CIA/Mossad regime-change prescription as a script written by Mossad or the IDF. He says past covert destabilization efforts inside Iran were run by CIA, MI6, and Mossad — not organic Iranian opposition — and that Iran has since eliminated most Mossad operatives on the ground.
• 5.Netanyahu's call to phase out US military aid over 10 years carries three strategic signals. Wilkerson reads it as: acknowledgment of the eastward shift of global power toward China; a signal of disdain designed to make Washington beg; and leverage to pressure Trump not to end the war.
• 6.Wilkerson says Israel has not honored a single hour of the Lebanon ceasefire and is systematically destroying civilian infrastructure. He warns Netanyahu's goal is to annex southern Lebanon as part of 'greater Israel,' which risks a direct clash with Turkish forces he considers superior to the IDF.
• 7.Robert Kagan's Atlantic piece 'Checkmate in Iran' argues this US defeat cannot be repaired or reversed, unlike Vietnam or Afghanistan. Wilkerson agrees with the analysis but says Kagan's motive is to provoke decision-makers into escalating rather than negotiating, since Kagan co-authored the 'Clean Break' strategy that shaped the Bush-era Middle East wars.