Is Argentina Quietly Eyeing Up the Falklands?

TL;DR

Argentina is in a stronger diplomatic and military position over the Falklands due to Milei's Trump ties, UK's weakened resolve, and Argentine rearmament.

Key Points

• 1.The Falklands dispute dates back to competing 18th-century settlements. France settled in 1764, Britain in 1765; Spain later bought the French claim, but Britain never renounced its own, setting up a conflict Argentina inherited after independence in 1816.
• 2.Argentina's 1982 invasion failed after 74 days due to British and US support. Thatcher deployed a naval task force backed by American missiles, fuel, and base access; a 2013 referendum showed 99.8% of islanders wanted to remain British.
• 3.Milei's close relationship with Trump weakens the US as a potential British ally. Trump called Milei his 'favorite president,' is frustrated with the UK over Greenland and Iran, and has hinted at NATO withdrawal, making American backing of Britain unlikely.
• 4.Starmer's Chagos Islands handover has raised fears about Britain's commitment to overseas territories. Milei himself cited the deal as proof the Falklands could become Argentine, and some argue it signals Starmer is less resolute than previous prime ministers.
• 5.Argentina is modernizing its military while British defenses in the region are thin. Argentina received six F-16s, ordered three Scorpion-class submarines and four patrol vessels from France for over $2 billion, while Britain currently has only one ship, HMS Forth, guarding the islands.