Guam and the Practical Impact of Climate Change || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

A Category 4/5 super typhoon hitting Guam threatens America's only viable power-projection hub for all of Asia, with worsening climate making the base potentially untenable.

Key Points

• 1.Guam is irreplaceable for U.S. military power projection across Asia. As American territory requiring no foreign negotiation, it covers everything from northern Japan to the Strait of Malacca, and no rival can easily threaten it with amphibious assault — only missiles.
• 2.A super typhoon (Category 4/5) is currently striking Guam and the Mariana Islands. The base has reduced to emergency-only operations — Navy speak for being unable to function — with extreme flooding already underway and worsening within 24 hours.
• 3.Climate change is making catastrophic typhoons far more frequent at Guam. Normally hit by a regular typhoon every 7–9 years, this is the second super typhoon in 7 years; a super El Niño year triples the central Pacific's typhoon probability on top of that.
• 4.Repeated super typhoon damage could force the U.S. to abandon Guam entirely. With no viable alternative islands nearby — all are low-lying and coral-based — losing Guam would mean scrapping entire military strategies, including those for Taiwan, for the rest of the century.