Who would Win a US-Iran War?

TL;DR

Iran would effectively win because America's political collapse, impossible terrain, and lack of allied support would doom any invasion.

Key Points

• 1.No viable land route exists: The US has lost its 2005 strategic advantage — Iraq is now an Iranian puppet state, Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, Pakistan aligned with China, and Turkey/Saudi Arabia drifted away, leaving only a Gulf amphibious invasion.
• 2.The Straits of Hormuz are a death trap: Surrounded on three sides by land, the Straits give Iran maximum missile firing angles against US carriers. In Pentagon war games, an American player simulating Iran defeated the US fleet over 10 times consecutively.
• 3.Aircraft carriers are obsolete in this fight: GPS-guided missiles make carriers sitting ducks near coastlines, just as planes made battleships obsolete in WWII — the US military hasn't updated doctrine to reflect this.
• 4.Iran's mountains negate every US advantage: Blitzkrieg/shock-and-awe requires flat terrain and tanks. Iran's geography forces WWI-style mountain trench warfare where US air power, naval power, and firepower are largely ineffective.
• 5.Invasion would legitimize the mullahs: Iranians dislike their government, but historically populations rally against foreign invaders — the US made the same miscalculation in Iraq and Afghanistan expecting to be greeted as liberators.
• 6.US military recruitment is already broken: The military is 25% below peacetime recruitment targets, and a Pentagon survey found 75% of Gen Z men are unfit for service due to obesity and mental health issues.
• 7.A draft would trigger domestic revolt: Right-leaning young men who'd be needed to fight despise the left-wing establishment; forcing a draft could provoke a right-wing revolution rather than a functioning military force.
• 8.The war would bankrupt the US government: Congress can barely pass budgets now; a war started by one party would be defunded by the other, causing a government default and global economic crisis — while Russia and China exploit the distraction.