How Bad Have the Scottish and Welsh Elections Been for Starmer?

TL;DR

Labour suffered historic losses in both Scotland and Wales, with Welsh Labour losing power for the first time since 1922 and SNP dominating Scotland.

Key Points

• 1.The SNP won a fourth consecutive victory in Scotland with 58 seats, but fell short of a majority. Down from 64 seats in 2021, the SNP missed the 65-seat threshold Swinney needed to push for an independence referendum, despite Labour collapsing from 22 to 17 seats.
• 2.Scottish Greens doubled their seats from 8 to 16 and won their first Holyrood constituencies. They ousted SNP heavyweights Angus Robertson in Edinburgh Central and took Glasgow Southside, Nicola Sturgeon's former seat, meaning every Scot now has a Green MSP.
• 3.Wales delivered Labour its most catastrophic result in over a century. Labour won only 9 seats (9%) versus Plaid Cymru's 45% and Reform's 34%, and Welsh Labour leader Eluned Morgan lost her own seat — the first sitting head of government in British history to do so.
• 4.Wales's new fully proportional closed regional list system amplified smaller parties' gains. The switch from AMS hurt Labour and Conservatives significantly, helping Reform (from 0 seats to 34%) and Plaid Cymru (from 22% to 45% of seats).
• 5.Starmer's national unpopularity was a major factor in both losses, but local issues compounded the damage. Welsh Labour had an approval rating of -24, NHS Wales missed key waiting-list targets days before the vote, and rumours of leadership challenges from figures like Andy Burnham and Angela Rayner are now circulating.