Yet Another Shameless Hull City Video.

TL;DR

Hull City defied all underlying data to finish sixth and qualify for the Championship playoffs, setting up a semi-final against Millwall.

Key Points

• 1.Hull City qualified for the playoffs on the final day via a dramatic three-way finish. Derby lost 2-1 to Sheffield United, Wrexham drew 2-2 with Middlesbrough, and Hull came back from 1-0 down to beat Norwich 2-1, moving from seventh to sixth on the day.
• 2.Hull are statistically the biggest expected-goals overperformers in Championship history. Based on underlying data, they should have finished second-from-bottom, sandwiched between relegated Leicester and Sheffield Wednesday — yet they made the playoffs.
• 3.Defensively, Hull were historically poor, conceding 66 goals — the most ever by a Championship playoff team. They faced the second-most shots on target (219) and had an xG-against of 79.2, second highest in the division.
• 4.Attacking efficiency masked defensive frailties for most of the season. Hull scored 70 goals (fifth most) from only 513 shots (fifth fewest), boasting the highest shot-on-target accuracy in the league and scoring the second-most goals from counterattacks.
• 5.Manager Sergey Yakirovic's system and January transfer decisions blunted Hull's attack in the second half of the season. Losing pace options Andala and Akinola, plus the sidelining of KL Joseph, reduced the high press and counters that made Hull dangerous early on.
• 6.Hull's playoff record is perfect (2-for-2) but league history strongly favors Millwall. Only two sixth-place teams have won the Championship playoffs in 20 years — Blackpool in 2009-10 and West Ham in 2004-05 — giving Hull roughly a 1-in-7 historical chance.
• 7.Southampton are the overall playoff favourites, but Hull's semi-final draw against third-place Millwall is considered the more favourable matchup. Positive omens include the returns of Rean Slater, Ryan Jars, and Mohamed Balumi from injury, though Charlie Hughes may play with a double hernia.