Could Oscar Piastri really leave McLaren for Red Bull?

TL;DR

Red Bull has identified Piastri as their preferred Verstappen replacement, but contract ties, junior driver threats, and McLaren politics complicate any potential move.

Key Points

• 1.Red Bull has specifically targeted Piastri as Verstappen's preferred replacement. Laurent Mekies and Oliver Mintschlaf both see Piastri as the ideal candidate, despite Verstappen holding a contract until end of 2028 and a move remaining unlikely.
• 2.Piastri's manager Mark Webber has strong Red Bull ties that could facilitate a deal. Webber raced for Red Bull himself, though he no longer attends races at Piastri's own request after causing friction over McLaren's 'Papaya rules' team orders.
• 3.A Red Bull move carries serious risk from junior drivers breathing down Piastri's neck. Red Bull's pipeline includes Hadjar and Lindblad; if given a balanced car, juniors could match Piastri and shift team focus away from him — exactly what happened to Webber when Vettel rose up.
• 4.Piastri's McLaren situation is clouded by alleged favouritism toward Lando Norris. Norris's billionaire father invested heavily in McLaren, and Zak Brown invested in Norris's Quadrant brand; many believe this contributed to Piastri's late-season struggles last year when Norris claimed the title.
• 5.McLaren's junior pipeline may eventually force Piastri out anyway. With Bortoleto and Alex Dunne already released and Leonardo Fornaroli being groomed for F1, McLaren is unlikely to drop Norris, potentially leaving Piastri without a seat in the near future.