Bring On the Jet Fuel Shortages || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

The Iran war has taken Gulf crude offline, causing a global jet fuel shortage lasting at least a year with no viable substitutes.

Key Points

• 1.A half-billion barrels of Gulf crude have gone unproduced since the Iran war began. Medium-heavy sour crude from Kuwait, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia — the preferred feedstock for jet fuel refineries — is offline, and no new shipments are expected for 2–3 months minimum, likely over a year for Kuwaiti and Iraqi supply.
• 2.Jet fuel production is uniquely inflexible compared to diesel or gasoline. Distillation columns require precise conditions to produce jet fuel, and unlike gasoline or diesel shortages, there is no substitute — cargo cannot simply shift to rail or ship, because jet fuel is exclusively for aircraft.
• 3.Airlines across Asia and Australasia are already cancelling flights for months, not weeks. China, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, the Philippines, Vietnam, and India are all affected, and Zeihan expects the shortage to persist for at least a year — assuming no further military escalation, which he suggests is unlikely.