Will Verstappen's Bad Luck Finally End at the Japanese Grand Prix

TL;DR

Verstappen's bad 2026 start may turn at Suzuka due to targeted Red Bull upgrades, his track mastery, and a possible end to his recent bad luck streak.

Key Points

• 1.Verstappen's 2026 season has been a disaster so far. A P6 in Australia, DNF in China, and a Nordschleife GT3 disqualification (Winward Racing used 7 tyre sets instead of the allowed 6) sum up a brutal start.
• 2.The RB22 is rumoured to be 30kg overweight and lacks grip and downforce. Red Bull is considered the fourth-fastest package in 2026, with teething problems in both car and new engine.
• 3.Red Bull TP Laurent Mekies confirmed targeted upgrades are coming for Japan. The upgrades will address handling, tyre graining, and reliability — specifically targeting the flaws exposed in Shanghai.
• 4.Suzuka suits Verstappen better than almost any other circuit. He won there four consecutive times, beat faster McLarens in 2025 qualifying by taking maximum risk in the high-speed esses, and won from pole.
• 5.Verstappen himself acknowledged the team's struggles but expressed cautious hope for Japan. He stated: 'Hopefully, we can already be a little bit better in Japan,' while the FIA's new engine upgrade rule — allowing more development spending the further behind you are — could also help Red Bull long-term.