Week 4 Recap of the Strait of Hormuz | Is the Aya-TOLL-ah Booth Open to Everyone?

TL;DR

Iran's new $2M transit toll and permission regime is selectively blocking ships, with China's own vessels turned away despite assumed safe passage.

Key Points

• 1.Iran imposed a $2 million toll on Strait of Hormuz transits. Dubbed the 'ayatollah booth,' the fee creates legal risk for companies in sanctioned-nation jurisdictions — paying Iran may itself constitute a sanctions violation.
• 2.Iran is not letting everyone through despite claims of open passage. Ships must provide crew and cargo details, avoid business ties with UAE or countries supporting US/Israeli operations, and adhere to new IRGC transit requirements.
• 3.Two massive COSCO container ships were turned back, undermining China-Iran alignment assumptions. The CSCL Indian Ocean and CSCL Arctic Ocean — 18,000 TEU ultra-large vessels — aborted their Hormuz exit and returned to UAE anchorage, shocking observers who expected China to have safe passage.
• 4.India is successfully moving stranded LPG cargoes out. Four LPG tankers including BW Elm and BW Tire have transited so far, with 20 Indian LPG vessels still stranded in the Persian Gulf region awaiting clearance.
• 5.Houthi threats in the Red Sea are resurfacing, threatening the Yanbu pipeline alternative. Up to 7 million barrels per day may flow through Yanbu, but a Houthi return could force expensive VLCC shuttle operations through Suez — a route VLCCs cannot fully loaded transit.
• 6.A US ship insurance program through DFC and Chubb is launching 'soon' — but critics say it is weeks too late. The host argues it should have been operational by week one of the conflict, as fuel prices globally have surged: bunker fuel has doubled and aviation fuel has spiked.
• 7.US military posture is evolving with the Tripoli amphibious ready group now in the region. Options include landing Marines on Oman's southern Hormuz shore to counter Iran's northern control, while the Abraham Lincoln carrier group is rearming and the USS Ford is undergoing fire damage repairs in Croatia.