'Love Tap': Trump BOMBS IRAN, Says Ceasefire STILL ON

TL;DR

Trump struck Iran's Qeshm Island calling it a 'love tap' while insisting the ceasefire remains intact, as nuclear deal negotiations hang in the balance.

Key Points

• 1.Trump claims ceasefire is still active despite ordering strikes on Iran. After bombing Qeshm Island and the city of Mahabad, Trump dismissed the attack as Iran 'trifling' with the US, calling it a 'love tap' — not a ceasefire violation.
• 2.Trump made what analysts describe as a thinly veiled nuclear threat against Iran. Standing at the Lincoln Memorial reflecting pool, Trump warned, 'You're just going to have to look at one big glow coming out of Iran' if a deal isn't signed fast.
• 3.Iran was on the verge of submitting its amended deal proposal when the strikes occurred. According to Jeremy Scahill's Iranian sources, Tehran had finalized its position and was about to send it via Pakistan when the US bombed, causing Iran to pause submission.
• 4.Pakistan, the primary mediating country, was blindsided and frantically tried to stop the US escalation. Iran was reportedly prepared to strike US interests across the Persian Gulf before back-channel talks calmed the situation down.
• 5.US intelligence contradicts Trump's claims that Iran is nearly defeated. A CIA assessment says Iran retains ~75% of pre-war missile stockpiles and ~70% of mobile launchers; Iran's foreign minister claims their capacity is actually at 120% due to ongoing production.
• 6.Project Freedom — the US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — was a strategic failure. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait denied overflight rights, few civilian ships complied, and Scahill suggests the operation may have partly been a pretext or cover for clandestine intelligence operations.
• 7.Iran's internal debate over pursuing nuclear weapons has intensified dramatically. Trump's nuclear threat and the ongoing war have fueled a serious factional debate inside Iran's leadership about whether not building a bomb was a mistake, with the North Korea model cited as a deterrent example.
• 8.Israel is assessed as likely benefiting from any deal outcome, not just continued war. Scahill argues Israel cooked intelligence fed to Trump, and even if a deal is signed, Israel plans to focus on economically destabilizing Iran to eventually bring down its government.