Dave Smith: Mossad, WWII Myths, FBI Cover-Ups, and Trump's Critical Next Move in Iran

TL;DR

Dave Smith argues the Iran war is an unwinnable disaster driven by WWII myths, sunk-cost fallacy, and a broken propaganda machine that no longer controls public opinion.

Key Points

• 1.The propaganda machine is irreparably broken. Every major government crisis since 9/11 — WMDs, 2008 crash, COVID — ended with exposed lies, and simultaneously cheap technology enabled independent media to fill the credibility vacuum.
• 2.Independent media won the debate but not the policy. A 50-point polling swing on Israel-Palestine sympathy (from +48 Israeli to +1 Palestinian in the US) occurred in two years because open media allowed fair debate for the first time.
• 3.Podcasters have cultural influence but no real power. Smith argues they control no platforms, have no FBI or nuclear weapons, and their current influence is a temporary quirk of a transitional historical moment.
• 4.Trump trapped himself by staking his presidency on the Iran war. Smith believes Trump expected a quick, easy win like Venezuela, but escalating Iranian responses now make it politically impossible to stop without claiming defeat.
• 5.The sunk-cost fallacy of war is the most dangerous of all. The argument that 'those boys died for nothing if we quit' guarantees perpetual conflict — Smith argues the deaths are already sunk and continuing only adds more.
• 6.Iran is not Iraq or Afghanistan — the US cannot survive another 20-year ground war. Smith says the economic, cultural, and military conditions of the 1990s that enabled the global war on terror no longer exist.
• 7.Victory in Iran may be the worst-case scenario. Toppling the Iranian regime would cause chaos in the Persian Gulf, threatening global energy and fertilizer supply that requires a strong controlling authority to keep shipping lanes open.
• 8.WWII myths are the load-bearing pillars of the national security state. Daryl Cooper's controversial WWII revisionism generated massive backlash precisely because it challenges the foundational justifications for the CIA, Israel, and every subsequent war.
• 9.Every modern enemy is called Hitler to justify war. Saddam Hussein, Noriega, Assad, Putin, and Trump have all received the Hitler comparison, and any opposition to war is labeled Neville Chamberlain appeasement.
• 10.The post-WWII settlement was itself catastrophic. Smith lists de-industrialization of the West, partition of India, creation of the authoritarian national security state, delivering half of Europe to Soviets, partition of Germany, and mass ethnic cleansing of German civilians as outcomes of the 'victorious' war.
• 11.Mossad-backed Iranian voices distort the narrative on why Iran hates the US. Smith distinguishes authentic Iranian grievances — the 1953 CIA coup, installation of the Shah, and US facilitation of Saddam's 1980 invasion and chemical weapons — from paid pro-war propaganda.
• 12.The US backed Saddam's chemical weapons use against Iran. Smith notes neocons cited Saddam's chemical attacks to justify the Iraq War while omitting that the US facilitated the sale of those weapons and greenlit the 1980 invasion, costing roughly 500,000–600,000 Iranian lives.
• 13.A Shiite jihad is a new and underestimated threat. Unlike previous conflicts with Sunni radicals (al-Qaeda, ISIS), a full Shiite jihad against the West is unprecedented, and Smith notes apparent blowback attacks like a shooting in Austin the day after the war launched.
• 14.Killing an Ayatollah is not merely a political act. Smith argues intellectuals like Sam Harris who spent careers demonizing Muslim irrationality ignore that assassinating a religious leader — and his family — is certain to generate profound, lasting retaliatory motivation.
• 15.America's founding experiment in small government was hollowed out by its own success. From 1865–1910, the federal government spent ~1.5–2% of national income with no central bank or income tax, producing history's greatest economic expansion; winning WWII then delivered corrupting total power, per Lord Acton's principle.