Reform’s Polling Decline Explained

TL;DR

Reform UK's polling has dropped from a 30% peak because immigration faded as a top issue, Farage became unpopular, and the party hit its voter ceiling.

Key Points

• 1.Reform peaked between August–October 2025 (29–36% depending on pollster), but has since fallen to 23–27%, losing by-elections in Caerphilly (by 11 points) and Gorton and Denton (by 12 points)
• 2.Immigration, Reform's core issue, has declined in voter salience as defense and foreign affairs rose due to the war in Iran, where Farage's pro-Trump stance conflicts with 59% of British public opinion
• 3.Farage's personal approval has steadily fallen, damaged by a school racism scandal, alleged election spending rule violations, and his close association with the unpopular Trump
• 4.Reform has effectively hit a voter ceiling — YouGov found only 27% would consider voting Reform, nearly identical to the 26% already planning to, leaving almost no room for growth
• 5.Reform still leads national polls but faces critical May 7th devolved elections in Scotland and Wales, where results could signal whether they can credibly claim to have replaced the Conservatives as Britain's main right-wing party