California's Coming Energy Crisis || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

California faces imminent fuel shortages because the Persian Gulf closure has cut off the 500,000+ barrels per day it imports from that region.

Key Points

• 1.The Strait of Hormuz closure has taken 10–12 million barrels per day offline permanently, not temporarily. Unlike Saudi/UAE fields designed for warm shutdown and 90-day restart, most Persian Gulf producers (Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar) cannot quickly restart once shut in — Iraq took 20 years to recover after Saddam fell.
• 2.California is uniquely vulnerable because it gutted local production while demand kept rising. The state produces only ~300,000 barrels/day but consumes ~1.4 million, requiring 1.1 million barrels/day in imports — nearly half from Persian Gulf suppliers now cut off.
• 3.This week marks the arrival of California's last pre-war Persian Gulf tankers. Northeast Asia and Europe already lost their final pre-war crude shipments in the past two weeks; California now joins that list, making the energy shortage imminent rather than theoretical.
• 4.California's crisis is less severe than Asia's but still significant, with no pipeline fix available. Because no pipeline crosses the Rockies, replacement product must come by truck or rail, meaning higher West Coast prices and reduced U.S. export capacity — and recovery requires full Persian Gulf safety plus years of field restart, unlikely before 2026 at earliest.