LET'S F**KING GOOOOOOOOOOOOO

TL;DR

A two-week US-Iran-Israel ceasefire has been agreed, collapsing oil prices and shifting markets toward rate cut expectations.

Key Points

• 1.A two-week ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran has been officially agreed. The Ayatollah approved the deal, Iran claims victory by forcing the US to accept its 10-point plan, while Trump also claims victory; Israeli strikes have paused despite Israel's reluctance.
• 2.Iran launched missiles at Israel minutes after Trump's ceasefire announcement. Additional volleys followed an hour later, with missile and drone warnings issued across Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the UAE, suggesting the left hand wasn't talking to the right.
• 3.Iran's 10-point plan includes permanent end to hostilities, lifting all sanctions, and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran will escort ships through the strait, charge roughly $1 per barrel toll split with Oman, and use proceeds for reconstruction.
• 4.Oil prices collapsed sharply on the ceasefire news, dropping from ~$117 to the low $90s on WTI. Despite the drop, oil remains ~50% higher than the $60 start-of-year price, meaning consumer and travel damage persists.
• 5.Rate cut odds surged after the ceasefire, with December futures now showing a 40.8% chance of cuts. This is a full reversal from two weeks ago when multiple rate hikes were being priced in, making it a bullish risk-on catalyst.
• 6.Meet Kevin rates Intuit (Intuit) a flashing long-term buy with a 1.12 PEG ratio implying more than a double. It has 44% operating income growth, 17.3% revenue growth, improving margins, $4.3B in cash/receivables, and over $2B in cash flow in just six months.
• 7.Palanteer is described as reaching fair valuation for the first time, with commercial revenue up 121% year-over-year. Sales and marketing grew only 24%, signaling strong pricing power, though there is no technical discount for a juicy entry.
• 8.Meta and Microsoft are flagged as cheap on a forward PEG basis, with Microsoft at 1.37 suggesting nearly a double. Axon at 1.12 PEG and AppLoving at 1.3 PEG are also highlighted as software opportunities caught up unfairly in broader market weakness.