How Kalshi And Polymarket Are Trying Copy The Crypto Playbook

TL;DR

Polymarket and Kalshi are launching perpetual futures contracts, mirroring crypto exchanges to compete for retail traders beyond niche prediction markets.

Key Points

• 1.Polymarket is launching perpetual futures contracts, copying crypto's most explosive product. Perp trading grew nearly 50% in 2025 to $86.2 trillion in volume; unlike traditional futures, perps don't expire, letting traders hold positions indefinitely with collateral.
• 2.Kalshi is also reportedly planning crypto and perps trading, framing the move as defensive. The CFTC is actively working to onshore perps under the pro-crypto Trump administration, creating a land-grab moment for both platforms — though prediction markets face insider trading scrutiny that adds regulatory risk.
• 3.Both platforms risk running into Robinhood's 27-million-user head start as a full-service exchange. The bigger question is whether Polymarket and Kalshi can evolve into broad financial platforms or remain niche, as Robinhood already bundles equities, options, crypto, and prediction markets in one app.