Here’s What’s At Stake In Tuesday’s Big Primaries

TL;DR

Democrats are favored to flip the House in November's midterms, but winning the Senate requires a much harder path.

Key Points

• 1.Texas holds the most consequential primaries: Republican incumbent John Cornyn faces Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt, while Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico clash in a nasty primary.
• 2.Democrats need only 3 House seats to flip the chamber; Cook Political Report lists 14 Republican-held toss-ups vs. 4 Democrat-held, and historical precedent favors the out-of-power party.
• 3.Senate control requires Democrats to flip Maine, North Carolina, plus two of Alaska/Ohio/Iowa/Texas — while defending vulnerable seats in Michigan, Georgia, and New Hampshire.