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The Biggest Currency Reset in US History JUST Started.
TL;DR
The Fed is printing money to buy Treasury bonds because foreign buyers have retreated, which will weaken the dollar like it did Britain's pound.
Key Points
- 1.Nearly $10 trillion in US government debt matures in the next 12 months (34% of all outstanding debt), requiring constant refinancing as foreign central banks have stopped buying and now hold a declining share of total Treasuries.
- 2.The "term premium" — the safety tax investors demand for holding long-term US debt — has surged from -1.2% to 0.75% recently; if it reverts to its 60-year average of 2%, bond yields could spike from 4.5% to 6%.
- 3.US interest payments already consume 3% of GDP, double recent levels and more than the entire defense budget, meaning any yield increase further crowds out real government spending.
- 4.The Federal Reserve has quietly restarted Treasury purchases ("reserve management purchases") at $40 billion/month, with its own projections showing balance sheet expansion through at least 2033 — effectively unlimited money printing to cap yields.
- 5.The UK did the same in the 1940s: the Bank of England pegged rates at 3%, the pound collapsed from $5 to under $3, and the British stock market rose 100% as capital fled the currency into hard assets.
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