I F*KED Up… My INSANE Stock Market Prediction For 2026

TL;DR

Graeme reveals he held too much cash and wrong real estate, now rotating into heavier S&P 500, international stocks, and Bitcoin for 2026.

Key Points

• 1.Graeme is investing heavier into stocks despite stretched valuations. He doubles down on daily dollar-cost averaging into the S&P 500, treating every dip as a buy signal, and is reducing his oversized 25% cash/treasury position by rotating it into markets.
• 2.International diversification at 28% of his portfolio has been his best performer. Year-over-year it's up 38% vs the S&P 500's 29%, and even in 2026 it's up 7% while the S&P is break-even, prompting him to add more emerging markets exposure.
• 3.He is selling all California rental properties except his primary residence. Insurance costs doubled, repair costs tripled, and legal exposure from tenant litigation now makes a single eviction cost $50,000–$60,000 vs $1,500 in 2012, making treasuries a better risk-adjusted alternative.
• 4.Bitcoin is his high-conviction asymmetric bet despite being 50% off its peak. He's increasing his Bitcoin ETF allocation citing government deficit spending, rising national debt, and faster-than-expected institutional adoption, while acknowledging quantum computing as a long-term risk.
• 5.Collectible cars produced wildly different results. His 2005 Ford GT gained 65% since 2021, on par with the S&P 500, while his 2010 Tesla Roadster lost 30% due to plummeting Tesla brand sentiment and repair costs — highlighting the importance of asset selection.
• 6.Private equity investments have been his biggest regret despite strong paper returns. Locked up for years, subject to repeated dilution, secondary market discounts of up to 70%, and near-zero liquidity, he warns investors not to undervalue simplicity and liquidity in portfolio construction.