OIL SPIKES After Ukraine BLOWS UP Russian Refineries

TL;DR

Ukraine destroyed 40% of Russia's oil export capacity with drone strikes as desperate retaliation for U.S. sanctions relief and diverted weapons shipments.

Key Points

• 1.Ukraine has halted at least 40% of Russia's oil export capacity. Drone attacks on Russian oil infrastructure are Ukraine's retaliation for the U.S. lifting sanctions on Russian oil, which has let the Kremlin book billions from buyers like India.
• 2.Trump's 'gift' from Iran was not a diplomatic win. The Straits of Hormuz passage for fuel tankers was Iran's longstanding policy — tankers from countries like India that deal directly with Iran were always allowed through, with no U.S. involvement.
• 3.Ukraine is taking increasingly desperate and reckless actions. Indian authorities arrested Ukrainian nationals and a U.S. mercenary allegedly attempting to train Indian separatist groups in drone warfare — a direct response to India being Russia's top oil buyer.
• 4.The LNG supply chain has been severely fractured by the Iran conflict. Iranian strikes on Qatar damaged the Ras Laffan facility, knocking out 17% of capacity for up to 5 years; Qatar Energy declared force majeure on contracts with China, South Korea, Italy, and Belgium.
• 5.High oil prices are expected to outlast any ceasefire. Brent crude sits near $100–$110/barrel, diesel remains over $5/gallon, and U.S. refinery vulnerability — highlighted by a fire at the Valero Port Arthur facility — means domestic supply relief is structurally limited.