Iraq, Oil, and a Break for Chevron || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Chevron is negotiating to take over Iraq's massive West Kerna 2 oil field after US sanctions forced Russia's LukOil out.

Key Points

• 1.LukOil had operated West Kerna 2 near Basra for 20 years, reaching ~450,000–500,000 barrels/day, but Trump-era sanctions cut them off from US dollar markets, forcing a shutdown and Iraqi nationalization.
• 2.Iraq's state-run Basra Oil Company is now in first-round negotiations with Chevron to take over the field; no deal is signed yet, but Chevron could become sole operator within a year.
• 3.Chevron's superior technology and capital access could expand West Kerna 2 from ~450,000 to over 1 million barrels/day within 5 years — the field is technically simple, large, and already has pipelines and offloading infrastructure.
• 4.Chevron has no assets in Iraqi Kurdistan (unlike early post-war investors), removing the key geopolitical obstacle that previously blocked US companies from securing southern Iraqi deals; Iraqi Parliament ratification remains the main hurdle.