Trump's Iran War is Worse Than You Think

TL;DR

Trump's Iran war has already cost $11 billion in its first week and triggered the largest oil supply disruption in global history.

Key Points

• 1.Humanitarian toll: 3.2 million Iranians internally displaced, at least 1,348 civilians killed inside Iran, and 800,000 displaced in Lebanon, with Israel's strikes there killing ~680 people including ~100 children.
• 2.Iranian retaliation is ongoing: Drones and missiles hit Kuwait's airport, an Italian military base in Iraq, two oil tankers (killing 1, requiring rescue of 38), and cargo ships near the UAE — 19 commercial ships damaged total.
• 3.Oil crisis: Prices hit $100/barrel, gas up 20% nationally to $3.60/gallon, diesel up 30% to $4.86/gallon. The IEA called it the largest supply disruption in global market history — 8 million barrels/day loss from the strait.
• 4.Fertilizer and food crisis: The Strait of Hormuz is a key fertilizer shipping route; Bloomberg describes a "fertilizer crisis like never before," threatening to spike global food prices on top of rising energy costs.
• 5.Trump contradicts himself: He claimed the U.S. "virtually destroyed Iran" while also saying "we got to finish the job," and called rising oil prices good because the U.S. is a top producer — economists say consumers bear the cost.
• 6.Pentagon bombed an elementary school: A U.S. missile strike killed 175 people at an Iranian school, with the Pentagon's own inquiry concluding the school was on the target list, possibly mistaken for a military site, raising AI targeting concerns.
• 7.MAGA civil war: Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly called it "Israel's war," while Ben Shapiro defended it, demanding they name Trump directly; Republican support for the war jumped from 40% to 85% once Trump launched strikes.
• 8.No clear exit: Iran's new supreme leader vowed to keep weaponizing the Strait of Hormuz, U.S. intelligence says Iran's leadership remains intact, and experts warn forcibly reopening the strait would likely require a ground invasion.