What if Australia and Indonesia went to war in 1999?

TL;DR

Overall Summary: A war over East Timor would have pitted Australia's technologically superior but small expeditionary force against Indonesia's larger but poorly maintained military, with Australia likely winning air and naval dominance but facing significant logistical challenges sustaining ground operations.

Key Points

• 1.Australia's F/A-18 Hornets and F-111 bombers could strike targets across Indonesia, including Java, giving decisive air superiority
• 2.Indonesia's military was Soviet-equipped but poorly maintained, with much equipment non-operational due to the 1997 financial crisis
• 3.Australia's main vulnerabilities were its limited sealift capacity and dependence on just a few supply ships like HMAS Tobruk
• 4.The scenario assumes hardliner General Prabowo took power in 1998 instead of Habibie, making Indonesia willing to resist militarily
• 5.Australia's SAS would have seized Dili airport by force, as they actually planned before Indonesia granted permission
• 6.Australian submarines (Collins-class) were plagued with mechanical failures and likely couldn't deploy for combat
• 7.The RAAF's over-the-horizon Jindalee radar could track Indonesian aircraft from Timor without blind spots
• 8.Australia's political goal was demonstrating expeditionary capability to set precedent for future interventions
• 9.Indonesia's goal was preserving the military's political position by preventing Timorese separation
• 10.Australian troops had advanced body armor (SAPI plates) stopping 7.62mm rounds—unusual for 1999
• 11.The real INTERFET operation came close to combat, with Australian and Indonesian troops nearly exchanging fire
• 12.Indonesia used militias as proxies, killing 1,400 Timorese after the independence vote
• 13.Australia had only 10 combat-ready F-111s at Tindal, limiting sustained strike operations
• 14.Coalition partners would likely be limited without a clear UN mandate, straining Australian logistics further
• 15.The video uses military simulators to model what actual engagements would look like