Why Cuba is Becoming the Next Haiti

TL;DR

Cuba is collapsing into a failed state because decades of U.S. sanctions, Soviet collapse, and internal mismanagement have gutted its economy and triggered mass exodus.

Key Points

• 1.Cuba lost an estimated 2.75 million people (nearly 1 in 4) since 2020 — the fastest population collapse of any country this century outside war-torn Ukraine.
• 2.The Cuban peso collapsed from 20:1 to 450:1 against the USD since 2019, implying ~68% annualized inflation for six straight years, pushing 89% of Cubans into extreme poverty.
• 3.7 in 10 Cubans skip at least one meal per day; a carton of 30 eggs costs 43% of the average monthly wage; rice and beans cost three days' labor.
• 4.Cuba produces 25% less electricity than in 2019, suffers nationwide blackouts of up to 20 hours daily in rural areas, and relies on outdated Soviet-era diesel generators for 83% of its power.
• 5.Venezuela slashed oil exports to Cuba from 100,000 barrels/day in 2021 to just 16,000 by 2025; Trump now threatens to cut even that last supply line after capturing Maduro.
• 6.The U.S. embargo, running 64 years, has inflicted an estimated $130–148 billion in cumulative economic damage; the UN has voted 33 consecutive years to end it, with the U.S. voting against every time.
• 7.Cuba's military conglomerate GAESA secretly controls 40% of the economy and $18 billion in hidden assets — enough to fund medicine and electricity — but hoards it rather than spending it on public needs.
• 8.Marco Rubio, son of Cuban exiles and now both Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, is the primary architect of Trump's maximum-pressure Cuba policy aimed at regime change.
• 9.Cuban-Americans in Florida voted 68% for Trump in 2024 — higher than white men — giving the administration strong political mandate; their 2016 votes effectively handed Trump the presidency by flipping Florida's 29 electoral votes.
• 10.Miami now holds ~2 million Cuban-Americans, nearly matching Havana's 2.15 million metro population, and over $1 trillion in financial assets have relocated there since 2020, making it the world's wealthiest Spanish-speaking city.