So You Want to Take Iran's Oil… || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Taking Iran's oil is logistically near-impossible — gas fields can't be exported, oil fields require full provincial occupation, and history guarantees disaster.

Key Points

• 1.Iran's oil wealth is split into two distinct zones. The South Pars field in the Persian Gulf holds 70–80% of Iran's natural gas but has no export infrastructure, so seizing it would just shut off power to 90 million people. Khuzestan province in the southwest holds 70–80% of Iran's oil, exported via Kharg Island.
• 2.Taking Kharg Island alone does not mean controlling Iran's oil. Trump's focus on Kharg Island would only cut off Iran's export ability — actual control of production requires capturing all of Khuzestan province and adjacent territories.
• 3.Khuzestan's oppressed Arab minority is not a reliable fifth column. The U.S. tried a similar strategy in southern Iraq with Shia Arabs who resented Baghdad, and after 20 years the only consensus was hatred of the U.S. — Khuzestan would be worse, with a fully intact Iranian military opposing the occupation.
• 4.Trump is actively moving military assets toward Iran. The USS Tripoli Marine Expeditionary Unit was at Diego Garcia and the USS Boxer is 2–3 weeks from the Persian Gulf; Zeihan warns a ground offensive is likely and predicts a repeat of the 25-year Middle East occupation disaster.