Is right-wing populism finally on the way out?

TL;DR

Right-wing populism is not dying — history and evidence show it always rebounds because inequality, cultural disconnects, and social media keep fueling it.

Key Points

• 1.Historical precedent shows populism always returns despite crushing defeats. Austria's Freedom Party collapsed in the early 2000s after Haider's chaotic government yet still won the most votes in the last election; Italy's Berlusconi repeatedly bounced back and Italy is again ruled by populist right.
• 2.Populism is a political lens, not an ideology. Both left and right-wing populism pit 'the people' against 'corrupt elites' — left populists target economic elites like billionaires, while right populists target cultural elites like Brussels bureaucrats, academics, and mainstream politicians.
• 3.Economic grievance (Narrative 1) is real but insufficient as an explanation. US hourly wages for non-college workers are barely higher than 1965; regions exposed to Chinese imports and automation did swing populist, but equally unequal Spain/Portugal saw far less right-wing surge than wealthier Norway and Switzerland.
• 4.Cultural disconnect (Narrative 2) is the strongest single driver. FT data shows politicians sit far to the left of average voters on immigration and crime — in Germany even conservative politicians are more liberal on immigration than the average voter; Denmark's Social Democrats adopted stricter immigration policies and right-wing populist support halved from 20% to under 10%.
• 5.People are NOT becoming more racist or authoritarian (Narrative 3 is false). Larry Bartels' survey of 300,000+ Europeans found attitudes toward immigration, trust in parliament, and satisfaction with democracy have remained broadly stable or slightly improved over two decades.
• 6.Social media amplifies and organises extreme voices (Narrative 4). Psychologist J. Vanbo's four 'dark laws' — negativity, extremism, tribal thinking, and moral-emotional language — drive algorithmic engagement, making fringe views more visible, more organised, and more politically relevant without actually increasing their prevalence in the population.
• 7.No single narrative explains populism; all three combine to sustain it. Rising inequality erodes institutional trust, political elites' cultural disconnect creates a representation gap, and social media gives 10–30% populist minorities outsized power — meaning right-wing populism will keep surging unless all three conditions change.