The Blockade of Iran Begins || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

The US naval blockade of the Persian Gulf cuts off IRGC oil exports and drone imports, finally targeting the faction that actually controls Iran's military.

Key Points

• 1.The blockade directly targets IRGC finances for the first time. Previous US-Israeli strikes destroyed Iran's above-ground economy but left the IRGC untouched, since their power derives from oil exports (~2 million barrels/day) and smuggling networks — both now cut to zero.
• 2.The IRGC poses a serious retaliatory threat. These are the people controlling Iran's missile fleets and thousands (possibly tens of thousands) of drones, with demonstrated capacity to strike any energy asset on the Arab side of the Persian Gulf.
• 3.Two blockade vulnerabilities exist: Chabahar port and land borders. Iran's eastern port Chabahar requires a separate US naval task force, while China can truck or rail drone components through Pakistan or Central Asia — though that route takes roughly three weeks.
• 4.Trump cannot simply declare victory and withdraw. Doing so would hand Iran control of the Strait of Hormuz, allow continuation of its nuclear program, and leave the US in a worse strategic position than before the conflict began.