The US Treasury Market is Sending a Major Warning...

TL;DR

The Iran war is triggering a $1.2 trillion bond market selloff, threatening a yield spike to 6-7% that could cause a broader economic crisis.

Key Points

• 1.The Iran war has already erased $1.2 trillion from the US bond market. Treasury bond prices fell 5% since the war began, pushing the 30-year yield back toward 5%, while oil at ~$100/barrel — 60% higher than months ago — is driving food inflation: corn +14%, soybeans +15%, wheat +21%.
• 2.Energy and food together directly affect 25% of CPI, signaling persistent inflation. Oil feeds into fertilizer costs, which raise crop prices; food (15%) and energy (~10%) components of CPI are already being hit, and their indirect effects on services inflation compound the pressure on bond yields.
• 3.The Federal Reserve is being forced from a dovish to a hawkish stance. The 2-year Treasury yield has jumped back above the Fed Funds rate — a signal last seen in 2022, when long-term bond yields surged from 2% to 5% in just a few months as the Fed tightened aggressively.
• 4.The term premium is the hidden threat that could push 30-year yields to 6-7%. Currently near 0%, the term premium hit above 2% during each of the last three major oil shocks (1973, 1979, 1990); a 1-2% rise from today's 5% base would bring yields to levels unseen in over 30 years, raising mortgage, corporate, and credit card rates economy-wide.
• 5.Copper and uranium are presented as the key investment opportunities amid bond market chaos. Copper tripled in the 1970s oil shock as investors fled financial assets; uranium quintupled between 1972-1974 and again surged in the early 2000s alongside high oil prices — the video pitches specific stock picks in both sectors as a premium research upsell.