Will China be the real winner from the Iran war? | The Economist

TL;DR

China sees opportunity in U.S. chaos from the Iran war but risks long-term weakness as a free-rider on a collapsing American-led order.

Key Points

• 1.China studies 'chokeholds' obsessively as geopolitical leverage tools. After rare earth export controls caused panic in the U.S., Beijing is already hunting the next chokehold — pharmaceutical precursors and chemical supply chains are cited as candidates.
• 2.China paradoxically prefers a weak but transactional Trump over hawkish alternatives. Beijing views Trump as the least hawkish figure in Washington, more willing to allow chip sales and investment deals; a weakened Trump empowering Marco Rubio is described as China's 'nightmare.'
• 3.U.S. global favorability has collapsed while China's gradually rises. A 42-country poll shows U.S. favorability dropping from +5 to -15 average, driven by Trump-era disruption from November 2024 through the Iran conflict, while China is increasingly seen as a predictable, workable partner.
• 4.The Iran war exposes China as a strategic free-rider. China benefits from U.S.-secured sea lanes like the Strait of Hormuz without contributing to global security — a vulnerability Chinese scholars privately acknowledge but the slow-moving Beijing system resists addressing.
• 5.China's status-quo preference is a blind spot in a rapidly changing world. Despite rhetoric about '100-year changes,' Xi Jinping's leadership resists adapting its model; stable trade and commodity imports China needs require a functioning global order it is not stepping up to sustain.