Netflix (NFLX) Stock Crash 40% | Huge Opportunity or Value Trap?

TL;DR

Neither extreme—Netflix is close to fair value now but not a screaming buy until around $60/share.

Key Points

• 1.Current valuation metrics say slightly overvalued: Free cash yield at 2.93% (want 4%+), enterprise value to free cash ratio at 34.65 (want under 25)
• 2.Strong fundamentals: 15-16% revenue growth, solid free cash flow growth, low debt (repayable in ~1.5 years)
• 3.2028 projections look better: With assumed $13B free cash flow, valuation metrics approach fair value territory
• 4.Smart buybacks: Company repurchased shares in 2023-2024 when prices were lower—good capital allocation
• 5.Buy target: Creator suggests waiting for ~$60 range for a genuinely undervalued entry point