Underwater Drones and the Future of Naval Warfare || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Underwater drones offer little naval advantage due to limited range and detection, but surface drones are already reshaping maritime warfare as Ukraine has proven.

Key Points

• 1.Underwater drones lack the key advantages that make aerial drones effective. Better optics, power management, and lighter materials don't help underwater platforms — they can't see farther, and battery improvements are marginal. Submarine-launched underwater drones essentially already exist: they're called torpedoes.
• 2.Ukraine's surface drones have devastated the Russian Navy with low-tech simplicity. Jet skis packed with 500–700 lbs of explosives and basic steering controls have caused massive damage because traditional naval weapon systems are designed to shoot upward at aircraft, forcing Russia to defend ships with deck-mounted machine guns and RPGs.
• 3.Surface maritime drones with hundreds of miles of range will force the militarization of cargo ships. There aren't enough military vessels to patrol sea lanes during the coming security breakdown, so container ships, bulkers, and tankers will likely need to mount their own weapon systems — probably airborne drones — to intercept surface threats before impact.