Iran's strongest weapon

TL;DR

Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz is its most powerful weapon because 20% of global oil flows through it, spiking prices and pressuring the US.

Key Points

• 1.The Strait of Hormuz carries 20% of the world's crude oil, making its closure catastrophic. Oil prices surged past $100 a barrel from $70 before the war, pushing US gas prices above $4 a gallon, while critical goods like fertilizer, metals, helium, and energy resources were also cut off.
• 2.Iran closed the strait with surprising ease using ship attacks and insurance pressure. A steady drumbeat of attacks caused insurance companies to halt coverage for vessels entering the Persian Gulf, effectively blocking shipping without requiring a full naval confrontation against superior US and Israeli forces.
• 3.Iran is profiting financially from the closure it engineered. By restricting global supply and driving up prices, Iran's oil export revenues have hit multi-year highs, turning its weapon of disruption into a direct economic windfall while the rest of the world absorbs the pain.
• 4.The US has no clean solution and is desperate for an off-ramp as Trump's approval ratings fall. Iran is using strait control to bargain against US goals like dismantling its nuclear program, and short of a full-scale invasion, the US cannot force the strait open against Iranian will, making Iran the unlikely winner so far.