What can Donald Trump get from Xi Jinping? | The Economist

TL;DR

Trump seeks wins on trade, Taiwan arms sales, and AI safety from Xi, but deep mistrust and Xi's domestic pressures limit what either side can concede.

Key Points

• 1.Trump is negotiating Taiwan arms sales directly with Xi, alarming Taipei. After Xi personally flagged arms sales as the top bilateral issue in a January call, Trump publicly acknowledged the discussion and delayed a $13–14 billion arms package — violating secret 1982 assurances the US gave Taiwan.
• 2.US-China AI safety cooperation is limited by geopolitical rivalry despite shared risks. Both sides should align on AI use with nuclear weapons and bioweapons, but a fundamental lack of trust prevents meaningful limits; the Biden-era agreement that humans retain nuclear control was a low bar, hard to enforce.
• 3.China's approach to AI diverges from America's, prioritizing practical cheap models over AGI. Beijing is also uniquely concerned that powerful private AI companies could gain insights into Chinese society that the Communist Party itself lacks, threatening its goal of total societal oversight.
• 4.A proposed US-China 'Board of Trade' could manage tariffs but risks becoming a talking shop. Past working-level dialogue mechanisms failed because Chinese negotiators below the top level lack authority to make concessions, meaning high-level political involvement is essential for it to function.
• 5.Xi will demand reciprocal gains before offering Trump any symbolic wins on beef, soybeans, or Boeing purchases. Xi faces no domestic political threat from concessions, but China's weak internal consumption and industrial overcapacity mean he needs tangible economic benefits in return for any headline deal.