It's Official

TL;DR

Ray Dalio says the global world order has officially broken down, and history suggests a predictable path toward major conflict.

Key Points

• 1.Trade wars come first — Every major historical conflict was preceded by trade wars (U.S. vs. Japan before Pearl Harbor, UK vs. Germany before WWI). We have that now.
• 2.Tech wars are phase two — Countries locking down chips, AI, and algorithms (Nvidia export bans, TikTok's algorithm) mirror past battles over naval and railroad tech.
• 3.We're currently in phase three — Shifting alliances and new power blocs are forming: EU + TPP countries are merging into a "middle powers" trading bloc, isolating both the U.S. and China.
• 4.Phase four is the warning sign — Watch for financial controls: asset freezes, capital controls, and restrictions on gold ownership signal countries preparing economically for war.
• 5.Phase five is hot war — Dalio isn't predicting it, but says pressure makes it harder for leaders to back down. The French economist's warning applies: *"When goods don't cross borders, soldiers will."*