Professor Pape: Why A Nuclear Iran Is INEVITABLE

TL;DR

Professor Pape argues Iran is inevitably pursuing nuclear weapons because it now controls the Strait of Hormuz, is aligning with Russia and Pakistan, and has removed nuclear talks from negotiations.

Key Points

• 1.The U.S. has lost control of the Iran war this week. Iran is negotiating with Pakistan, Russia, and Oman — bypassing the U.S. entirely — while Germany's leader publicly called America 'humiliated on the world stage.'
• 2.Iran is emerging as the fourth center of world power. The fragmentation of the GCC is accelerating, with the UAE leaving OPEC and Iraq drifting toward Iran, as America's Abraham Accords counterbalancing coalition falls apart.
• 3.Iran's 'opening' the Strait of Hormuz is not a real concession. Secretary Rubio confirmed Iran's offer means ships must coordinate with the Iranian military and pay a $2 million-per-ship toll — roughly $60 billion annually — which the U.S. rejected as not truly open.
• 4.A nuclear Iran is now inevitable because Iran removed nuclear negotiations from the table. Iran has told the U.S. nuclear talks won't resume until the naval blockade is lifted, while simultaneously meeting with Pakistan (a nuclear state that helped Iran's centrifuge program) and Russia, signaling a nuclear weapons timeline of roughly one year.
• 5.The JCPOA only worked because Obama traded U.S. missile defense in Eastern Europe to get Russia's cooperation. Russia stopped SA-300 sales to Iran as part of that deal; recreating it today would require massive concessions to Putin far beyond cutting Ukraine aid.
• 6.Oil is now in a true shortage phase, not just a price-anticipation phase. Brent crude rose to $117/barrel during the interview; Pape says shortages began ~10 days prior, storage is being depleted, and by mid-to-late May, rising inflation and unemployment will produce a 1970s-style 'misery index.'
• 7.The Iran war is straining U.S. global deterrence, leaving Taiwan vulnerable. The Pentagon estimates the U.S. has spent roughly 50% of its Patriot and THAAD arsenals, leaving Taiwan 'essentially naked,' while Iran and Russia — who together control 30% of world oil — coordinate against their common Western adversary.