The U.S. Helps India and Russia Helps Iran || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Trump granted India temporary waivers to import Russian oil after Persian Gulf closure, while Russia simultaneously undermines U.S. operations by providing Iran targeting intelligence.

Key Points

• 1.Trump brokered a deal with India ~6 weeks ago to stop importing Russian crude. India had been importing over 1 million barrels/day of Russian oil since the Ukraine war began, a major financial lifeline for Moscow.
• 2.The Persian Gulf closure (day 10) forced the U.S. to issue temporary one-month waivers. Without either Russian or Persian Gulf oil, India faced an energy-induced depression — losing ~25 million barrels/day of global supply simultaneously would have been catastrophic.
• 3.Russia is actively providing the IRGC with targeting information against U.S. troops in Iran. Multiple intelligence sources — international, domestic, military, and congressional — confirm this with specific cases noted, a continuation of Russia's 20-year strategy of keeping America bogged down elsewhere.
• 4.Trump's pro-Russia inner circle — Witkoff, JD Vance, and Tulsi Gabbard — filters out damaging intelligence. Gabbard controls the daily presidential brief, making it unlikely Russian targeting assistance even reaches Trump's desk.
• 5.Russian Urals crude is now trading above the Brent benchmark on Indian markets, confirming the sudden surge in Indian purchases following the waiver — a measurable market signal that the policy shift is real.