Former head of MI6: Iran has the "upper hand" in the war | The Economist

TL;DR

Iran holds the strategic advantage because it dispersed military assets, retained drone stocks to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, and fights a war of survival versus America's war of choice.

Key Points

• 1.Iran has the upper hand due to resilient military strategy. As early as last June, Iran dispersed military capability and delegated weapons authority, giving them significant resilience against the US air campaign — the US underestimated the task and lost initiative roughly two weeks ago.
• 2.Iran's drone stockpile gives it leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Even with just 10% of initial drone stocks, Iran can hold the straits at threat because the relevant audience is oil tanker owners and captains, not military commanders — the threat to zero is impossible.
• 3.Iran fights a war of existence while the US fights a war of choice. Trump's rhetoric confirmed to Iran it faces a civilizational, existential war, imbuing the regime with greater staying power than its US and Israeli counterparts, who lack equivalent ideological motivation.
• 4.The IRGC has effectively taken over as a junta, replacing the theocracy. With Khamenei dead and successor Mojtaba lacking religious credentials, power has shifted to the Revolutionary Guard — figures like new IRGC chief General Vahidi, a former Quds Force commander — making Iran more corrupt but potentially more pragmatic.
• 5.The regime is in its death throes long-term, but war extends its lifespan. The January uprising showed roughly 80% of Iranians reject theocratic ideology, with up to 10,000 citizens killed by IRGC militias, but the 10–20% with guns remain decisive; the war licenses further brutality and suppresses opposition organizing.