Geo-Strategy #4: Saudi Arabia's Trump Card Against Iran

TL;DR

Saudi Arabia's trump card is Donald Trump himself — MBS cultivated the relationship to get America to fight Iran on Saudi Arabia's behalf.

Key Points

• 1.Saudi Arabia and Iran became bitter rivals after Iran's 1979 Islamic Revolution, which threatened Saudi Arabia's monarchical system and its claim as leader of the Islamic world.
• 2.The rivalry has three dimensions: religious (Sunni Saudi Arabia vs. Shia Iran), economic (both are top oil exporters competing over price and production), and geopolitical (proxy wars across the Middle East).
• 3.Iran won all three proxy wars — in Iraq, Syria, and Yemen — against Saudi Arabia, demonstrating Iran's superior ability to project regional power.
• 4.Saudi Arabia's catastrophic defeat in Yemen revealed critical vulnerabilities: cheap Houthi drones could destroy oil fields and coastal desalination plants, threatening the entire Saudi economy and water supply.
• 5.Saudi Arabia concluded it cannot defeat Iran alone and needs the United States to militarily confront Iran on its behalf.
• 6.MBS built influence in Washington by befriending Jared Kushner, Trump's Middle East advisor, and after Trump left office, Saudi Arabia invested $2 billion into Kushner's private equity fund.
• 7.Trump's 2020 assassination of Qasem Soleimani — Iran's second most powerful figure, architect of its proxy wars — was something both Bush and Obama refused to do, fearing it would trigger a wider war.
• 8.The lecturer argues Trump's likely 2024 election victory could lead to a U.S. war with Iran, fulfilling Saudi Arabia's strategic goal of eliminating its greatest regional threat.