This Is A Real Crisis

TL;DR

A collapsing jobs market and an oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz closing are combining to threaten a full global economic crisis.

Key Points

• 1.The February jobs report came in at -92,000 jobs — a rare bad first-pass number that will likely be revised even lower, with healthcare and education jobs falling for the first time after propping up the labor market for over a year.
• 2.Downward jobs revisions have occurred consistently for 3 years straight; the last times this pattern appeared were 2001, 2007, and 2020 — all recessions.
• 3.Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's oil, has nearly stopped; ships are disguising their identities (e.g., Japan's "Iron Maiden" renamed "China Owner") to attempt passage.
• 4.Brent crude broke $100/barrel and was hitting $115 at time of recording — the first time since the Ukraine war — with gas prices already up 10 cents in a single day, approaching $3.50 nationally.
• 5.Knock-on effects beyond gas: fertilizer prices up 71% in 90 days (threatening global crop planting), jet fuel costs doubled (airlines grounding flights), and diesel prices choking trucking and shipping.
• 6.China stockpiled a record 1 million barrels/day in 2025 anticipating disruption; Trump promised to refill the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve but never did, leaving America exposed to a crisis the U.S. itself triggered.
• 7.The single biggest winner is Russia — higher oil prices give Putin a financial lifeline, increased leverage over China, and the U.S. has already begun lifting Russian oil sanctions to try to lower prices.