Strait of Hormuz WEEK 5 Update | Is the Strait OPEN or CLOSED? | Have We Gone Full Looney Tunes?

TL;DR

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed at 12 daily transits versus the normal 138, with five weeks of shipping disruption now beginning to hit global markets.

Key Points

• 1.The Strait is functionally closed despite media claims it's open. Normal passage is 138 ships per day; only 12 transited on April 1st, and the 95% traffic drop-off's economic impact is only now reaching global markets.
• 2.Iran is operating a 'toll booth' between Lark and Kisham Islands, charging ships for passage. Estimates suggest $1 per barrel of oil — meaning $1–2 million per supertanker — mirroring Houthi Red Sea tactics and giving Iran commanding negotiating leverage.
• 3.Only 108 tankers have departed the Strait since March 1st, averaging 3 per day versus the normal 30. Of those, 78 are known sanctioned violators, including 29 of 31 VLCCs, meaning compliant Western shipping has largely stopped.
• 4.The supply disruption lag means Europe and the Americas are about to feel the crisis hit. A tanker leaving Saudi Arabia on February 28th sailing around the Cape of Good Hope only reaches Rotterdam in 39+ days — that supply gap is arriving now.
• 5.Iraq's oil exports have collapsed from 3 million to 645,000 barrels per day, while Yemen's Yanbu exports hit a 2017 high of 3.3 million bpd. Iran and Oman are reportedly negotiating a separate transit arrangement, with three Omani-controlled vessels using the north-of-Lark-Island lane on April 2nd.
• 6.The US response has been called too slow and incoherent. War risk insurance of $40 billion was announced five weeks late; the White House is sending mixed signals across Trump, Blinken, CENTCOM, and SecDef Hegseth, while five US ships and their crews remain stranded in the Persian Gulf with no clear extraction plan.
• 7.Multiple US carrier and amphibious groups are converging on the region. The Abraham Lincoln battle group, USS Tripoli, USS Boxer, USS George W. Bush, and USS Ford are all moving toward the area, raising questions about whether an assault on key Iranian islands — Hormuz, Larak, Abu Musa — is planned.
• 8.Both Iran and the US may lack incentive to reopen the Strait quickly. US LNG exports and domestic oil production are hitting records, while Iran gains geopolitical leverage; the host warns this precedent could inspire similar chokepoint blockades at Malacca, Gibraltar, or the Baltic.