Is Russia the real winner from the war in Iran? | The Economist

TL;DR

Russia benefits most because the conflict stabilizes oil prices and buys its strained economy critical breathing room.

Key Points

• 1.Russia's air defense advantage: Patriot missile interceptors being consumed rapidly by Gulf states and the US will divert supply away from Ukraine, meaning more Russian missiles will hit Ukrainian targets in the next 12 months.
• 2.Sanctions relief: US waivers granted to India begin cracking the sanctions architecture around Russia, easing economic pressure on a country that had already depleted its gold reserves and faced mounting military payroll costs.
• 3.Peace talks pushed further away: The economic safety net provided by high oil prices removes Russia's already-weak incentive to negotiate, which analysts say is bad for Trump, Europe, and Ukraine.
• 4.Gulf states face a binary choice: Either cut deals with a diminished but hostile Iran, or double down on US military alliances and build indigenous defense capability — both paths disrupt the Gulf's identity as a stable, business-friendly region.
• 5.China reads mixed signals: The US demonstrated military precision impresses Beijing (echoing lessons from the 1991 Gulf War), but America's depleted interceptor stockpiles and blunted appetite for conflict lead China to believe it could outlast the US in a protracted war within the next two years.