Here’s How The Conflict In Iran Is Affecting Markets

TL;DR

Middle East conflicts historically cause brief, shallow market pullbacks but almost never end bull markets, with oil prices as the key transmission mechanism.

Key Points

• 1.Oil prices rose ~7% globally on fears of disrupted petroleum transport, but that alone isn't enough to derail the U.S. economy.
• 2.Historical precedent (1990, 2003 Iraq conflicts) shows such events often triggered the *end* of bear markets, not bull markets — short-term dips typically last only days to a week.
• 3.The bigger concern is that markets were already weakened by mixed economic signals: softer consumer data, falling Treasury yields, credit stress, and declining bank stocks before the conflict began.