Has America frozen Israel out of ceasefire talks with Iran? | The Economist

TL;DR

Yes — Trump negotiated Iran ceasefire terms through Pakistan without Israel, leaving Netanyahu sidelined as the two allies diverge over Lebanon.

Key Points

• 1.Israel was excluded from US-Iran ceasefire talks conducted via Pakistan. The mediators (Pakistan) have no diplomatic relations with Israel, and it was understood from the outset that any ceasefire would be on Trump's terms, not Netanyahu's.
• 2.Lebanon is the central sticking point threatening the ceasefire. Iran demands a formal ceasefire in Lebanon as a condition for sending its delegation to Islamabad talks, while Israel refuses, arguing the Lebanon-Hezbollah front is a separate war not covered by the US-Iran agreement.
• 3.Netanyahu has limited room to defy Trump, but domestic politics constrain him. Facing an Israeli election in roughly six months, Netanyahu cannot appear to have ended the war disadvantageously — Iran's nuclear program remains intact, the regime survived, and Iranian missiles were still firing an hour after Trump announced the ceasefire.
• 4.A visible fracture is emerging in the US-Israel relationship. Senior Trump officials — including the Vice President, Secretary of State, and CIA director — are quietly distancing themselves from Netanyahu, with pre-war reservations about Israel's plans now leaking to outlets like the New York Times.