Iran War, Oil Shock, Off Ramps, AI's Revenue Explosion and PR Nightmare

TL;DR

The besties argue the Iran war needs a quick off-ramp while AI revenue hits historic numbers but remains largely experimental.

Key Points

• 1.Brent crude spiked to $119 before settling near $99; Goldman Sachs raised 2025 PCE inflation forecast to 2.9% and cut GDP by 30bps; Polymarket gives 57% odds of US boots on the ground by year-end, but all four hosts expect Trump to declare victory and exit soon, with China's Xi summit seen as the key off-ramp catalyst.
• 2.Anthropic hit a $14B annualized run rate in February (12x year-over-year, valued at $380B); OpenAI reached $20B annualized (valued at $840B); Brad Gerstner says both will IPO this year per Jensen Huang, and the revenue surge is driven by AI agents competing with labor budgets, not IT budgets.
• 3.Chamath argues most enterprise AI revenue is still experimental "checkbox" spending with no proven ROI in critical production workflows, citing Amazon issuing a mandate requiring human review of all AI-generated code after several Sev-1 outages; Sacks and Brad counter that coding assistance alone represents massive, scalable latent demand.